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Vietnam's Consumer Price Index and its particular Influencing Elements: An Econometrics Report

Hanoi University

Faculty of Management and Tourism

Vietnam's

Consumer Price Index and Impacting on Factors

A great Econometrics Record

5/11/2012

Guide 2 - BA09

Lecturer: Ms. Đào Thanh Bình

Tutor: Ms. Trбє§n Betty Anh

Group members:

Nguyб»…n Thб»‹ HГ Giang ID: 0904000018

NgГґ Thi In nessun caso HЖ°ЖЎng IDENTITY: 0904000039

LГЄ ThГ nh Lengthy ID: 0904000050

BГ№i Thб»‹ HЖ°ЖЎng QuyГЄn ID: 0904000072

HoГ ng Minh ThГ nh IDENTIFICATION: 0904000082

Дђб»— ДђДѓng Tiбєїn ID: 0904000089

Trương Công Tuấn IDENTIFICATION: 0904000091

Nguyб»…n Thanh Tuyб»Ѓn ID: 0904000092

Acknowledgement

First and foremost, we would like to convey our honor to all individuals who gave all of us the possibility to complete this kind of research.

We would like to share our honest thanks to each of our lecturer Ms. Dao Thanh Binh, PhD, lecturer of Faculty of Managing and Tourism, Hanoi University, for her conscientious and devoted lectures. With out her valuable knowledge, this research can not be accomplished.

Our deepest gratitude also visits our much loved tutor Ms. Tran Kim Anh, grasp. Her devoted instructions and support were of great help. With out her heart-felt assistance and encouragement, this kind of paper probably would not be able to come to this end result.

Abstract

In recent years, Vietnam's inflation has increased to the alarming level of two-digit, ranking on its own one of a few countries having the highest pumpiing rate in the world. That Consumer Price Index (CPI) offers incessantly boomed to epic proportions is the major reason for this sort of worrying issue. Our task, therefore , is definitely aimed at investigating and analyzing Vietnam's CPI by testing the impact of following elements on CPI: USD/VND exchange rate, gasoline price, grain price and money supply. Henceforth, a prediction about inflation rate drawing via CPI and affecting elements analysis could possibly be given to help us better prepare for problems that can occur due to distressing pumpiing. The unit that can best illustrate relationship between the independent variables and CPI continues to be detected. Basing on our research, it can be apparent that those four factors have an important influence about Consumer Value Index.

Desk of Articles

Acknowledgementii

Abstractiii

List of Dining tables and Figuresv

1 . Introduction1

2 . Methodology2

2 . 1 ) Method of collecting data and other sources2

installment payments on your 2 . Techniques of processing the data2

several. Data analysis3

3. 1 . Consumer Price Index3

a few. 2 . Exchange rate4

several. 3. Petrol price5

several. 4. Rice price6

3. 5. Money supply7

some. Model specification7

4. 1 . Variables and relationships7

some. 2 . Unit selection8

a few. Regression interpretation and hypothesis testing13

five. 1 . Regression function rapport interpretation13

5. 2 . Speculation testing13

your five. 2 . 1 ) Significance test of specific coefficients13

5. 2 . installment payments on your Significance evaluation of general model15

5. 2 . 3. Test of dropping unimportant variable16

6th. Errors and limitation17

six. 1 . Limitations17

6. installment payments on your Errors and remedials18

six. 2 . 1 . Multicollinearity18

6th. 2 . installment payments on your Heteroskedasticity20

6. 2 . three or more. Autocorrelation21

several. Conclusion24

Appendixa

Referencesb

List of Tables and Figures

Desk 1: EView regression effect: Lin-lin model9

Table a couple of: EView regression result: Log-log model10

Stand 3: EView regression effect: Lin-log model11

Table 5: EView regression result: Log-lin model12

Desk 5: R2 and CV comparison among models12

Stand 6: EView regression consequence: New model16

Table six: EView regression result: P-R, MS18

Table 8: EView regression consequence: R-P, MS19

Table 9: EView regression result: MS-P, R19

Stand 10: EView White Heteroskedasticity Test (without cross terms)21

Table 10: EView regression result: Durbin-Watson statistic22

Table 12: Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM check: Lags 223

Figure you: Vietnam CPI from 2k to 20103

Figure two: Vietnam's USD Exchange charge from 2k to 20104

Figure a few: Vietnam's full petrol selling price from 2000 to 20105

Figure 5: Vietnam's rice price coming from 2000 to 20106

Figure 5: Vietnam's money supply...

References: BBC, 2007. Vietnam 's WTO membership commences.

(Accessed May 4, 2012)

Binh, N. V

(Accessed May 4, 2012)

General Statistics Office of Vietnam, 2012

(Accessed May some, 2012)

Gujarati, D. In., 2003

Indexmundi, 2011. Vietnam - money and queer money.

(Accessed April twenty six, 2012)

Phuoc, T. V

Vietcombank, 2002. Tỷ giá VND/USD tiếp tục ổn định tương đối.

(Accessed May 3, 2012)

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